We can have a significant economic rebound in 2H 2021


Comments by French finance minister, Bruno Le Maire

It is still early in the year but the timeline of the anticipated economic rebound (in other words, how vaccine optimism plays out) will be one of the key themes in the months ahead.

The early vaccine optimism got a lot of hopes up that things could be better by 1H 2021 but now much of that is being pushed back to 2H 2021.

Should the rollout encounter more hiccups and the virus situation fails to deescalate as quickly as thought, expect that to dash hopes of a return to ‘normal’ this year.

Either way, the virus scarring will still carry through for a prolonged period as the crisis has only served to exacerbate the timeline of poor economic conditions in most parts of the world – particularly Europe.

In case many have forgotten, the end of Draghi’s tenure as ECB president was rounded off with a rate cut and the reintroduction of QE. That is all before the virus crisis sent things into overdrive last year.

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