TD pushes Bank of Canada rate cut out to April after upbeat tone

Toronto Dominion analysts changes rate cut projection

Toronto Dominion’s Andrew Kelvin wrote in the note to clients that he now expects the back of Canada cut rates in April. Previously he was looking for a cut next month.

Kelvin said that,

  • The banks tone is more cold water for a January cut, though clearly not a game changer for CAD
  • With a resilient economy, the Bank of Canada can afford to wait longer before lowering rates

He cautioned that if the data surprised to the upside the next few quarters in the back of Canada’s 2020 forecast for growth is validated,”we will probably have to abandon the idea of rate cuts altogether”

The USDCAD trades just above the session lows at 1.3197 (low for the day is at 1.31934) and has moved below its 200 day moving average at 1.32237 in the process. That is now a risk level for shorts. 

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