Philadelphia Fed business outlook for January 17.0 versus 3.7 estimates


Philadelphia Fed business outlook for January 2020

Philadelphia Fed business outlook for January 2020
  • Philadelphia Fed index up 17.0 versus 3.7 estimate
  • prior month 2.4%. It was originally released at 0.3 but revised higher before today’s report
  • new orders 18.2 versus 11.1 last month
  • price is paid 22.1 versus 19 last month
  • employment 19.3 versus 16.8 last month
  • average work week 5.2 versus 8.5 last month
  • prices received 14.7 versus 11.0 last month
  • shipments 23.4 versus 15.7 last month
  • unfilled orders -3.7 versus 8.6 last month
  • delivery time -0.4 versus 12.5 last month 
  • inventories -2.3 versus +5.0 last month
  • The index is the highest level since May 2019 when it reached 17.5

the six-month forward data forecast shows

  • general business activity 38.4 versus 34.8 last month
  • new orders 41.9 versus 33.6 last month
  • number of employees 24.3 versus 27.4 last month
  • average work week 13.2 versus 17.5 last month
  • capital expenditures 32.9 versus 26.0 last month
  • shipments 42.4 versus 38.7 last month
  • price is paid 41.9 versus 46.0 last month
  • prices received 34.0 versus 45.1 last month

Overall a good/much better than expectations report, and a nice rebound from the dip in December. The index is near the highest levels going back to the 3rd quarter of 2018 (the high was at 17.5 over that period). 

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