Japan Q1 GDP expected to show a contraction, but March month was positive


Coming up at 2350 GMT is Japanese GDP preliminary for Q1 2021

  • GDP sa q/q expected -1.1%, prior +2.8%

  • GDP annualised sa q/q expected -4.5%, prior +11.7%

  • GDP nominal q/q expected -1.3%, prior +2.3%

  • GDP deflator (an inflation indication) expected -0.1%, prior +0.3%

  • Private consumption expected -1.9% q/q, prior +2.2%

  • Business spending expected +0.8%, prior +4.3%

The contraction expected is partially attributable to private consumption weakening in the three months (January – March) due to the government’s state of emergency in some major prefectures (including those with major cities of Tokyo and Osaka),

Just as an aside, last week the Japan Center for Economic Research published their take on March (just that one month) GDP:

  • Japan’s real gross domestic product gained 1.8% in March from February
  • exports and housing investment cited as boosting the result (exports +3%, housing investment +1.6%.)
  • JCER data for February also showed an expansion, by 0.3%
Coming up at 2350 GMT is Japanese GDP preliminary for Q1 2021



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