ANZ forecasts for the Australian dollar this year:
Their main points (in brief):
AUD has underperformed the improvement in global sentiment
- this seems justified by the tepid domestic story
While the recent improvement in the unemployment rate removes the immediate risk of RBA easing, it will remain a part of the narrative through 2020
The bigger risk to our forecast would be a broadly depreciating USD, but that is unlikely without global growth rising above trend – and that is a bridge too far.