Sellers pushing the EURUSD lower now.
The price action in the EURUSD has been “messy” today from a technical perspective. The ECB rate decision and press conference helped contribute. The central bank said that it “would not hike borrowing costs utilities inflation reach its 2% target well ahead of the end of its projection horizon and durably”. ECB Pres. Lagarde commented that “We did so to underline our commitment to maintaining a persistently accommodative monetary policy stance to meet are inflation target”.
ECB’s Weidmann and Wunsch objected to the length of the commitment and the lack of clarity. Some on the other side wanted to include APP guidance tied to ‘at least’ 2% rather than just a flat 2%. A lengthy discussion was held on whether an inflation overshoot would be incidental over intentional.
So there is some disagreement and perhaps that is manifesting itself in the price action for the EURUSD in the process. It certainly seems that way.
Technically, the price action has seen quick, choppy moves higher lower and above and below its 200 hour moving average above (green line) and 100 hour moving average below (blue line in the chart above).
The pair is moving back down toward the lows from both Tuesday and Wednesday. The low from Tuesday reached 1.17554. The low yesterday reach 1.17512. The low yesterday also stalled at a trendline connecting the July 14 low with the low from Tuesday’s trade. That trendline currently comes in at 1.17479. A break below would be more bearish.
When you have unresponsive days to the technicals it is an invitation to step away or at the least be very patient (it may also encourage trading failures).
If I were to adhere to the patient idea, the 1.1747 to 1.17554 area would be a buy zone. Move below and get out or go short and hope for more follow through.
Although the 100 hour MA has seen price action basically ignored, that MA would be a resistance target on a bounce now.
Alternatively, let the choppy price action work it’s way out. Like a bar room brawl, for some it may be tempting to get involved (especially if overserved), but there is little in the way of upside.